Maincard:

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Couture vs. Coleman

A lot of hype coming into this fight as this is the first time two active UFC Hall of Famers will face off. Obviously the two big factors in this fight are age and wrestling. Both men were on the US National Olympic Wrestling Team, and they’ve trained together in the past. Though even if they hadn’t trained together, I would still expect them to know each others’ styles well through sheer experience alone. Mark Coleman is known for two things: 1) Inventing ground and pound, and 2) having the best double leg takedown in MMA. Expect him to shoot and shoot often. He wants this fight on the ground where he will try to smother Couture and rain down blows from the mount. Couture will have a clear advantage standing as his boxing, footwork, and head movement far outclass anything Coleman can bring to the striking game. His conditioning will also be a huge factor. Coleman has taken much more punishment than Couture has over the years and has been known to slow down dramatically in later rounds.

Couture has never been a strong finisher and Coleman doesn’t have the power or energy he used to have so expect this fight to go to decision. Couture will likely win most if not all of the standing exchanges and I expect him to smother Coleman in the clinch like he did with Vera. Coleman will take the fight down a few times or more but “The Natural” will adapt to circumstances and either reverse Coleman on the ground or be able to stand up.

Verdict: Randy Couture via decision (unanimous).

Marquardt vs. Sonnen

From what I’ve seen of Sonnen he’s a fairly one-dimensional fighter, but so far his exceptional wrestling abilities have made people forget that his skills severely lack in other departments. He’s won so many fights just from his wrestling that I assume he decided he doesn’t need to improve in other areas. This fight might change his thinking. The thing about Sonnen is that he is able to take guys out of their fight plan. His wrestling is so good that he is able to completely smother his opponent and dictate every move of the fight. This is essentially his strategy going into every fight, and I expect this one will be no different. The only problem is that he’s never fought and beaten a guy like Nate Marquardt. Not only does Nate have huge KO power in his fists as seen by his 20 second destruction of Damien Maia, but he also has a strong ground game that most people seem to have forgotten about. 15 of his 29 victories have come by submission.

Marquardt may decide to keep this standing and given his strength and strong grappling pedigree he may be able to. Or he may decide to go to the mat with Sonnen and beat him at his own game. Sonnen is very susceptible to submissions as seen by his record. He has submission losses to Paulo Philo, Renato Sobral, Jeremy Horn (three times), and Forrest Griffin. Because of his one-dimensional fight game, Sonnen’s only chance to win is to do what he’s always done, and that means take Marquardt down and smother him. Marquardt on the other hand can win this fight from any position.

Verdict: Nate Marquardt via 3rd round (T)KO.

Swick vs. Thiago

This has the potential of being the most exciting fight on the card. Paulo Thiago is a solid prospect at welterweight and made a huge impression on the division when in his first UFC fight he knocked out Josh Koscheck. He later lost a decision to Jon Fitch, and now is set to face the only American Kickboxing Academy fighter he hasn’t fought yet in Mick Swick. The AKA boys are a tight fraternity and I bet Koscheck and Fitch are helping Swick train for this fight as much as possible. And he’ll need the help as I give Thiago nearly every advantage in this fight. His ground game is among the best at welterweight and his hands are equally as impressive. Swick may have the speed advantage standing, but Thiago moves better. Swick is dangerous in the clinch with his knees, but don’t forget that Thiago knocked out Koscheck from the clinch with an uppercut. Fitch used his wrestling to smother Thiago on the ground and prevented him from executing his superior BJJ skills. Swick doesn’t have the necessary wrestling ability to accomplish the same thing.

Swick needs to keep this fight standing because his ground game is nowhere near what it needs to be to hang with Thiago’s. And yet even standing there’s no guarantee that he can win this. Swick can win this standing with the proverbial “puncher’s chance” but in my opinion Dan Hardy exposed a lot of holes in Swick’s stand up and nothing short of an evolution on his part will get him the win in this fight.

Verdict: Paulo Thiago via 3rd round submission (choke).

Maia vs. Miller

BJJ powerhouse Demien Maia is taking on highly regarded wrestler Dan Miller in a bout that has Fight of the Night potential. Both guys are dangerous on the ground but Maia is on a level by himself. There is no way Miller will want to go to the mat with this guy. Miller will have an edge standing as Maia’s stand up is known to be weak. Miller will have to come in with a very conservative game plan. His striking will have to be pin point accurate to avoid Maia’s takedowns. Miller is known to be aggressive but not nearly as technical so expect him to make a mistake at some point that Maia will capitalize on.

Maia has heavy odds in his favor coming into this fight, but Miller can win if he keeps it standing. Either on points, or a KO, Miller’s only chance to win is standing. That being said, he isn’t strong enough to KO Maia the way Marquardt did and I expect Maia to take it to the mat as soon as he can. After that happens, there’s a library’s worth of submissions in Maia’s head he could execute.

Verdict: Demian Maia via 1st round submission (choke).

Serra vs. Trigg

At this point I really don’t know what Trigg’s motivation for fighting is. But whether his motivation is love of competition or relevancy, I still don’t think he can hang with UFC fighters. And this fight is no different. Trigg’s biggest weakness is BJJ and they match him up against one of the more technically gifted grapplers in the division. I have to give Serra every advantage going into this fight. His boxing is crisp, his chin is strong, his fist is packed with power, and his ground game is top notch. While Serra isn’t a submission guru like Maia, Nogueira, or Mir, his BJJ far outclasses Trigg. It’s not that Trigg has a bad ground game per se, but he tends to make stupid mistakes that leave his neck open. I mean stuff that a white belt would know not to do! To illustrate, here’s my favorite Frank Trigg joke: Frank Trigg does not fall asleep, his blanket chokes him out.

I see Serra wearing Trigg out with his inside-the-pocket style boxing and superior top game on the mat. Eventually Trigg will make a mistake and either get (T)KOed or submitted.

Verdict: Matt Serra via 3rd round submission (choke).